Vietnam’s economy was forecast to grow at the fastest pace in South East Asia this year, but the oil shock from the Iran war may put a dent in that trajectory.

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Erratic energy prices, a result of the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, have put pressure on Vietnam’s manufacturing sector - one of the country’s main engines of growth.

Vietnam’s economy boomed after Chinese businesses redirected trade through the South East Asian nation in 2018.

The country’s economy was already on an upward trend even before US President Donald Trump’s first round of trade tariffs, with growth outpacing its regional peers. Now, the government has set its economic growth target at 10% over the next five years.

To unpack Vietnam’s economic success, Asia Specific host Mariko Oi speaks to Sen Nguyen, the BBC World Service senior journalist, and Edmund Malesky, a professor at Duke University, specialising in economic development, authoritarian institutions, and comparative political economy in Vietnam.

00:00 Introduction
01:13 How much is Vietnam’s economy forecast to grow in 2026?
02:35 The short term shock on Vietnam’s economy from the Middle East unrest
04:48 Vietnam’s 1986 “Doi Moi” policy that led to rapid growth, explained
10:52 Is Vietnam tying its economy more closely to China?
13:03 The secret behind Vietnam’s rapid economic rise since the 90s
17:15 Will Vietnam achieves its own target of a 10% growth between 2026 to 2030?

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Email: asiaspecific@bbc.co.uk
Presenter: Mariko Oi
Producers: Derek Cai, Rachel Lee
Camera: Muhammad Firdaus Bin Mohd Ansary, Rosalehin Bin Rosli, Khairul Danish Bin Mohd Roslee, Fahmi Jamal
Editor: Bill Birtles

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